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Sunday, April 5, 2009

Using Stocks To Manage Your Investment Risk

By C.P.Billows

Whenever you invest, you are taking a risk. The goal is the manage it and not avoid it.

Every good investor knows that he should set aside some of his portfolio for long-term, lower-risk investments. The other portion can be used for medium to higher-risk investments depending on your financial circumstances and other life factors.

Allocate Wisely

A good rule of thumb to follow is: Allocate 50% of your portfolio for the long-term, lower risk category no matter how great a speculative short term pick may appear.

This will take discipline, but on more than one occasion it will probably save you in no small way.

Most of the systems and strategies you find on the Internet are high-risk, high-gain where you can be wiped out in a single transaction.

Take a risk! I do, but only with a certain percent of my funds. You should do the same.

So let's say for example that you choose to invest in long-term, lower-risk stocks with 50% of your portfolio.

Let's start by defining what a good long-term stock is. Some will call them large-cap stocks, other's call them Blue Chip stocks.

Blue Chips will be the common stock of a nationally known company that has a long record of profit growth, dividend payments, and a reputation for quality management, products, and services. Some examples would be International Business Machines, General Electric, and DuPont. They are relatively high priced and have moderate dividend yields.

There is no true master list of Blue Chip stocks. That is because the definition of what is and isn't a blue chip stock varies greatly. Essentially though, its a consistent top performing stock.

Look to such indexes as Dow Jones Industrial Averages and Standard and Poor's 100 Averages to see such lists.

The problem is that you may invest in long-term, lower-risk stocks that stagnate for years on end. Yet, even such stocks have their ups and downs and the profit you see (or don't see) can be exacerbated by current market conditions.

Your entry time could be poor and you may have to wait years to see a break-even point on such a stock.

You still need a proven strategy with so-called "stable" investment stocks.

Buy and Sell Wisely

To get the most gain out of the stocks you buy and help to minimize your risk, you need to employ one of the tools used by professionals, which is Technical Analysis. You will use some Technical analysis to help you determine the price to buy in and the price to sell. Technical analysis is merely putting a stock through a mathematical formula.

When you employ this tool properly, you can get many times the profit you currently get or others get with the old 'buy and hold' strategy.

Each technical indicator is made to tell you something slightly different. Some will tell you the momentum of a stock, its trend strength, volatility limits, how much its diverging from previous price patterns.

Some of these indicators, while good, are for short-term action. Others are more geared for long-term action. So just because someone swears by an indicator, it doesn't mean that its the right indicator for you in a certain application.

The indicator that we have become familiar with is called the Stochastic oscillator. This indicator is a momentum indicator that is based on closing prices of a stock that doesn't take into account wild daily fluctuations. It bases the current close against previous closes to indicate buying pressure or selling pressure.

Simple use of this indicator can make you lose money quick should you not understand how to properly use it. If you have ever traded using momentum indicators, you know that many false signals can be created. Whipsaws or false movements that quickly reverse in the indicator create further problems. The more people try to compensate for the weaknesses in the indicator, the worse it seems to get.

That is until development of the K-39 Theory, also called the Last Stochastic Theory. This theory will guide you in how to ignore those false signals and take advantage of the built-in momentum of the stock.

This way you can find ways to trade the best Blue Chip stocks and know when are the better times to buy and sell. You will then have the bluest of the blue chips thanks to this method. - 23208

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