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Tuesday, June 30, 2009

Using Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD)

By Ahmad Hassam

Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is one of the most reliable and useful tool in the arsenal of a currency trader. MACD is a trend following momentum indicator or oscillator.

MACD shows the relationship between two moving averages of recent prices. It is a lagging indicator. Most technical indicators are lagging which means they are slow. They just tell you what just happened after the fact.

Learning technical analysis is essential for you as a currency trader. Technical analysis is based on the premise that past price action can be used to predict the future prices in the currency markets.

Many chart types are used in the technical analysis. Technical analysis helps you to read your charts and analyze the price action with technical indicators. Learning how to use technical indicators is the key to understanding the market behavior.

MACD is calculated by subtracting a slow exponential moving average (EMA) from a fast EMA. Signal line is calculated by the taking the EMA of MACD. The Histogram is the difference between the MACD and its signal line.

MACD is one of the most popular indicators used by forex traders. However, beware that MACD is often misused. Like any other technical indicator you should use it in combination with other technical indicators.

Crossovers: A crossover happens when MACD falls below or rises above the signal line. When MACD rises above the signal line from below, it is a bullish signal. It indicates that you should buy. Conversely, when MACD falls from above, it is a bearish signal. It indicates the time to sell.

Divergence: Divergence takes place when the price diverges from MACD. Divergence indicates the likely end of the current trend. Negative Divergence is when both the price action line and the MACD line are diverging and the price action is rising and MACD is falling. Thats right! The lagging indicator that is supposed to follow the price is predicting future behavior of the prices in the market. It is an indication of the change in the currency trend.

Dramatic Expansion: Dramatic expansion occurs when the shorter moving exponential average pulls away from the longer moving exponential average. Suppose MACD expands dramatically. It is an indication that the currency is overbought/ oversold and may return to normal soon.

You should make one thing very clear when you use a MACD. All the above three cases are important. They should not be overlooked by you as a currency trader. However, none of them alone are signals for entering or exiting a trade. MACD Divergence is tradable when confirmed by other indicators. If you simply start trading on MACD Divergence, it may not yield a profitable trade.

However, when planned in advance and confirmed by other technical indicators, success is more likely. This is due to the fact that several things are happening at the same time. Each is attracting the same bulls and bears into the trade that you are planning.

MACD crossovers and dramatic rises are easy to spot. However, spotting MACD divergence takes a little practice. - 23208

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