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Thursday, October 29, 2009

Discover Sugar Commodity Trading, Follow Sugar Commodity Prices

By Marianna Gomes

With global agricultural prices looking set for long term increases, sugar commodity trading offers the trader or investor keen for exposure to commodities as an asset class some great opportunities. Just consider in 1974 sugar prices spiked over 60 cents a pound and in 1981 by over 40 cents a pound as the 1970's commodity bull market ended. And in 2009 commodities in general and sugar commodity prices in particular are advancing strongly again. The serious 2008 world economic slowdown is now giving way to strong recovering markets and sugar commodity prices are at their highest for 28 years.

There are numerous cases of serious sugar shortages as desperate consumers across Asia queue for small quantities of this key commodity. To think that while in 2007 India was a major exporter of sugar, with a surplus of five million tons, but from 2009 the country is a net importer. So what has caused this serious imbalance between world sugar demand and supply? After the shock of the global economic crisis, the US dollar is falling against other currencies and hopes of a strong rebound are causing real asset prices to be driven higher. Add in the weak monsoon season in India and very unhelpful weather for sugar plantations in Brazil, impacting adversely on sugar yields, and the result is raw sugar prices heading for a high of 25 cents a pound.

As part of our sugar commodity trading analysis, let's see where sugar comes from, in what forms and at the new dynamic that promises to make a profound change to future world sugar commodity markets. Sugar is produced in over 100 countries worldwide, with between 75-80% made from sugarcane, mainly in tropical and sub-tropical areas in the southern hemisphere. A key factor in successful crop yields is rainfall, with an annual minimum of around 600 mm. Apart from adverse weather conditions, another factor that can cause sugar prices on world commodity exchanges to rise is crop infestation by pests.

Leading the pack of top producing nations is Brazil, also the largest global exporter, followed by India, China, the EU, USA and Australia. A major distorting factor in world sugar markets is subsidy regimes in the US and Europe, as they artificially drive prices higher than the world sugar price. In addition to its traditional uses in bread fermentation and in fruit and vegetable products, sugar is now increasingly used as a source of ethanol fuel.

In 2007 there was a very tight balance between supply and demand, a situation almost certain to worsen as demand is expected to surge in developing Asia, particularly in BRIC nations like China and India. The largest consumer in the world is India, which is allocating far more sugar for ethanol as an alternative fuel. The world's third largest consumer and producer is China, and it is starting from a very low base of only 7kg per annum per capita consumption compared to USA per capita consumption of 45kg per annum.

Brazil is the largest world producer and understanding this market will help your sugar commodity trading strategy. Brazil aims to avoid a sugar glut by using the potential excess sugarcane crop to produce ethanol for biodiesel, an alternative to petroleum-derived gasoline. Growing use of sugar to produce ethanol has arisen alongside increases in crude oil prices and a surge in demand for sugar in China. With high crude oil prices likely in the future coupled with growing demand, producers face huge challenges to avoid higher sugar prices.

Armed with your chosen commodity trading system and good advice from your professional financial adviser, you can trade from almost anywhere in the world with good internet access. The #11 Raw sugar futures on the ICE US Futures platform is the most heavily traded sugar futures contract globally, followed by the #16 Sugar futures contract. It is also possible to use LIFFE CONNECT, part of the NYSE Euronext Group, to trade raw sugar futures. For those hesitant about leveraging in futures, an alternative could be to look at a soft commodity index using an ETF. Broadly speaking, higher sugar prices suggests sugar commodity trading looks very exciting going forward, given growing sugar consumption in the BRIC economies and rising demand for bio ethanol. - 23208

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