Examining Draw Downs When Selecting A Forex Signal Provider

By Tom K Kearns

When you're looking for a third party signal provider, one of the first things that you need to look at is their maximum draw down. This is the maximum amount lost between an extreme peak and an extreme valley. This number also includes open positions but does not take into account margin required to keep you out of a margin call. Inevitably the question comes: How much draw down is too much? The answer is like many trading questions. It depends. There are a lot of factors that come into play when answering this question. Obviously a person with a 50k account could tolerate more draw down than a person with a 5k account. Another person with a 1k account could withstand even less. So aside from your account size, what else do we have to think about?

Another thing to look at aside from the actual number is how that number came to be. If a trader has a draw down that is too high for you to tolerate but otherwise seems to trade well, you should look at how many positions he opens at a time. If that trader opens 5 trades on any given pair at a time you can instantly cut their historical draw down by 5. Limiting the # of open trades for a trader could drastically reduce the overall draw down.

You will on occasion discover a trader with a fine track record with the exception of one large meltdown suffered when just one trade ran amok for days unnoticed. This will give a distorted picture due to the abnormal draw down and doesn't mean much in relation to the trader's true ability. You may have stumbled on the type who can't tell when or if a trade has a shot at coming back to an even status. Or, the poor chap could possibly have the lousy luck of losing his connection to the internet at some very bad times. To keep this sort of thing from happening to you, set your own stops with the trader. Do make sure though that the stops you put on his trades are only those that are well out of reasonable trading range.

Time to return to the question that began this article. Once you have done all you possibly can to limit draw down, my feeling is that any number over 35% of your total account equity is exorbitant. If you get into a set of circumstances where you are suffering a 50% or greater loss, it is well nigh impossible to ever recover from those losses without undertaking risk in the extreme. Think about it. Do the math. If you suffer a 50% loss, you need to make a 100% recovery just to break even.

Historical information on the trader is another important consideration to take into account. A lengthy history being available can illustrate to you just how the trader handles rough seas in the trading arena. You want to know this because there will be rough seas in your trading future and you want a steady captain at the helm.

Do not just let go once you have selected your trader. You must constantly monitor his activity on both live and demo accounts. Should his draw down get crazy, it is undoubtedly time to reappraise your situation with him and perhaps delete him from your portfolio completely. - 23208

About the Author:

To learn more about Automated Forex Trading Systems or to choose a signal provider at Zulutrade visit http://www.automatedforextradingsystems.com .